Hard choices on defence

The future for Ukraine looks more uncertain than at any time since the invasion

The Armistice Day meeting between Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron in Paris was heavy with symbolism. The Prime Minister was the first since Winston Churchill in 1944 to attend the ceremonials at the Arc de Triomphe after receiving a personal invitation from the French president to mark the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings.
It afforded an opportunity for the two leaders to hold talks at a time of peril on the continent arguably greater than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The election of Donald Trump has forced a strategic rethink in the chancelleries of Europe about how to deal with Vladimir Putin’s aggression should the US president-elect withdraw support for Ukraine.
It was reported by the Washington Post that Mr Trump had called the Russian leader and urged him not to escalate further but the Kremlin denied any conversation took place. Nonetheless, Mr Trump has not hidden his view that America cannot continue to fund the war, certainly not at current levels. The US is by far the biggest provider of financial and military assistance to Ukraine and Mr Trump is right to expect the Europeans to pay more for their own security. Yet even though more countries now spend around two per cent of GDP on defence, the Nato target, this is by no means enough.
Few politicians in Europe are prepared to cut social spending to boost defence but they may longer be able to rely on America to fill the gaps if Mr Trump disengages from Nato. The commitment to the Ukraine and wider European defence dominated the talks in Paris though no decisions were taken about what to do next.
President Macron, together with Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, wants the EU to develop a military identity and will try to pull the UK into its orbit. Critics fear Labour will inch back into closer ties with the EU rather than use Brexit freedoms to seek new trade and military arrangements with Mr Trump’s new administration.
For now the pressure is on the incumbent Joe Biden to “Trump-proof” aid to Ukraine by making commitments that will be hard to undo, including letting Ukraine fire long-range missiles into Russia. He has already committed to sending Kyiv the remaining $6bn in allocated military aid before Mr Trump’s second term begins.
After that, the future for Ukraine looks more uncertain than at any time since the invasion.